Unemployment rate up one-tenth to 2.9 percent in September

by Timothy McQuiston, Vermont Business Magazine The Vermont Department of Labor announced today that the seasonally-adjusted statewide unemployment rate for September was 2.9 percent. This reflects an increase of one-tenth of one percentage point from the revised August rate. The rate had been unchanged since February. The rate has not gone up officially since April 2009 (6.7 percentto 6.9 percent), resulting from the Great Recession. However, because of the nature of these numbers, they could be further adjusted, which could result in a lowering of the rate, as has happened before. Data for the labor force and number employed fell by nearly an identical amount, while the number of unemployed was virtually unchanged.

“The topline numbers in September show a decline in employment as reported by Vermont businesses and Vermont households with the most noticeable over-the-year decline found in the leisure and hospitality sector. While many tourism-based employers are reporting difficulty filling open positions, unfilled positions could account for some of the reported decline. The Department is waiting to assess whether the reported decline holds or is adjusted with more data. We know that year-to-year differences can influence the historically calculated seasonal-adjustment factors. On a positive note, employers continue to report wage growth, a reflection of historically low unemployment and increased competition for labor. The Department is available to assist Vermont employers and job-seekers alike. Please contact any one of the Department’s twelve local offices to learn more,” said Labor Commissioner Lindsay Kurrle.

The national rate in September was 3.7 percent, which reflects a decrease of two-tenths of one percentage point from the revised August estimate.. As of the prior month’s preliminary data, the Burlington-South Burlington MetropolitanNECTAwas tied for the twenty-first lowest unemployment rate in the country for all metropolitan areas. Overall, Vermont’s unemployment rate was tied for8thlowest in the country; Hawaii is first at 2.2 percent, New Hampshire is tied for third at 2.7 percent and Alaska is last at 6.5 percent.

The seasonally-adjusted Vermont data for September show the Vermont civilian labor force decreased by 1,057 from the prior month’s revised estimate. The number of employed persons decreased by 1,062 and the number of unemployed persons increased by 5. Changes in the labor force and employment were statistically significant in the seasonally-adjusted series.

The September unemployment rates for Vermont’s 17 labor market areas ranged from 2.3 percent in White River Junction to 4.5 percent in Derby (note: local labor market area unemployment rates are not seasonally-adjusted). For comparison, the September unadjusted unemployment rate for Vermont was 2.8 percent which reflects no change from the revised unadjusted August level and a decrease of one-tenth of one percentage point from a year ago.

Not-Seasonally-Adjusted

The preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ jobs estimates for September show an increase of 2,700 jobs when compared to the revised August numbers. There was an increase of 300 jobs between the preliminary and the revised August estimates due to the inclusion of more data. The monthly increase seen in the September numbers was primarily attributable to seasonal activity related to education. The broader economic trends can be detected by focusing on the over-the-year changes in this data series. As detailed in the preliminary ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ September data, Total Private industries have decreased by 2,400 jobs (-0.9 percent) and Government (including public education) employment has decreased by 700 jobs (-1.2 percent) in the past year.

Seasonally-Adjusted

The seasonally-adjusted data for September reports a decrease of 500 jobs from the revised August data. As with the ‘not-seasonally-adjusted’ data, this over-the-month change is from the revised August numbers which experienced an increase of 100 jobs from the preliminary estimates. The seasonally-adjusted over-the-month changes in September were mixed at the sector level. Those with a notable increase include: Administrative & Waste (+200 jobs or +1.7%), Federal Government (+100 jobs or +1.4%), and Finance & Insurance (+100 jobs or +1.1%). Sectors with a notable decrease include: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation (-300 jobs or -5.9%), Real Estate, Rental & Leasing (-100 jobs or -3.1%), and Information (-100 jobs or -2.4%).

Last Modified Date:October 19, 2018

Source: Vermont DOL 10.19.2018. US DOL. The Unemployment and Jobs Report for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 16, 2018 at 10:00 a.m.