CoreLogic: Annual Home Price Growth Stalls in October

CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) and HPI Forecast^™ for October 2024.

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U.S. home price growth remained almost unchanged in October from the previous month, recording 3.4% year-over year-growth and a 0.02% increase from September. The stagnation highlights the fact that home price growth has remained relatively flat since this summer, only eking out gains in certain pockets of the country.

The Northeast has proved particularly resilient to current economic conditions despite slower job growth, elevated interest rates, and ongoing affordability concerns. New Jersey, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire claimed three out of the top five spots for year-over-year price gains, rising 8.1%, 7.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. Rhode Island and New Jersey prices reached new highs in October.

Meanwhile, Washington D.C., Idaho, and Montana top the list this month for the states that are furthest from their price peaks. Each location was down from its former high point by -3.5%, -2.5%, -2.1%, respectively. However, on a year-over-year basis, Washington D.C. prices are still up 4.7%. Hawaii was the only state to post an annual home price decline.

Despite the price declines seen in certain areas of the country, overall national price growth is expected to continue at a muted pace. Still, forecasts suggest that national single-family home prices will reach a new peak level in April 2025. Currently, the median sales price for all single-family homes in the U.S. is $385,000.

“Similar to much of the housing market activity, home prices continued to mostly move sideways in October,” said CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp. “A slight home price bump after a late summer decline reflects the rebound in home buying demand resulting from a short but effective decline in mortgage rates in August. Still, as we continue to bump along during this slower time of the year for the housing market, home prices are not expected to reveal much about what’s ahead for the spring home buying market. In the last few years though, springtime has seen home prices jump higher than before the pandemic despite elevated mortgage rates.”

On a metro level, Chicago posted the highest gain at 6.4% growth year over year. This Midwestern city was followed by Miami (+6.2%) and Las Vegas (+5.6%). Of the metros flagged by CoreLogic’s Market Risk Indicator (MRI) for being at risk for a market price decline, Provo-Orem, Utah, took the lead with a 70%-plus probability for decline in the next 12 months. Salt Lake City, Utah; Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Rowsell, Georgia; Tucson, Arizona; and Palm Bay-Titusville-Melbourne, Florida also indicated a very high risk of declines in home prices over year.

Top Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 3.4% year over year in October 2024 compared with October 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased just 0.02% from September 2024.
• CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 2.4% by October 2025.
• Chicago posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in October, at 6.4%. Miami saw the next-highest gain at 6.2%.
• Among states, New Jersey ranked first for annual appreciation in October (up by 8.1%), followed by Rhode Island (up by 7.5%). Hawaii was the only state to record a year-over-year home price loss.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring November 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on January 7, 2025, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

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